Research direction

Modeling the Future of AI

Building models for predicting when and how fast a transition to a world with advanced AI will occur

We aim to develop quantitative models to elucidate when a transition to a world with advanced AI will occur (AI timelines), and how quickly this transition might play out (AI takeoff dynamics).

The answer to these questions will help inform others about what avenues of work to prioritize. For example, on longer timelines we may want to prioritize building broad scientific and governance capacities that can be leveraged later, while shorter timelines might suggest investing in a suite of focused and targeted strategies for reducing risks.

This line of research involves:

  • Reviewing existing models of AI development and deployment; critically evaluating their assumptions, and assessing their strengths and weaknesses
  • Improving existing models of AI development and deployment by carefully updating and improving modular components
  • Developing novel models for the development and deployment of advanced AI systems
  • Improving our estimates of key parameters in models of AI development, such as by reviewing the relevant literature, or by producing estimates from data

Prior work

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